At the beginning of May, the Bush administration handed Israeli and
Palestinian leaders an eight-month timetable setting specific dates—some
of which have already passed—for steps both sides must take to push the
peace process forward. The timeline demands that Israel remove its
security roadblocks from Palestinian areas and allow Palestinian bus and
truck convoys to travel unimpeded between Gaza and Judea and Samaria.
The timeline gives dates for PA President Mahmoud Abbas to deploy his
forces in an attempt to implement a halt to the terrorist Qassam rocket
fire from Gaza into Israel.
The US plan demands that Israel approve and support, in an "immediate
and ongoing" manner, US requests for weapons, munitions, and equipment
for PA forces loyal to Mr. Abbas.
"The eight-month timeline calls for a series of steps that resemble
the ‘confidence-building measures’ laid out in the tattered Road Map
plan, another US initiative which Israel began to carry out and the PA
basically ignored," said Hana Levi Julian of Arutz Sheva.
"Benchmarks"
US diplomats said Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was committed
to the effort and that she hoped to draw up a blueprint that both sides
would agree to, possibly in writing, when she arrives in the Middle East
on May 15. The US plan calls for the "benchmarks" to be implemented
between May 1 and the end of December.
A senior US official who has been involved in the discussions told
Reuters that the benchmarks, which, he said, both sides had, at least in
principle, agreed to, were designed to give Israelis and Palestinians
"an incentive."
"One side gets security. The other side gets greater freedom of
movement," said the official.
"A Joke"
Upon receiving the timetable, Israeli officials said many of the
benchmarks imposed on the Jewish state would be impossible from a
security standpoint. Hamas leaders said they simply would refuse to
adhere to the US plan which essentially asks the Palestinians to halt
their rocket fire and relinquish terrorism in exchange for easing of
restrictions and barriers in PA areas.
"I swear it’s a joke," the Damascus-based Hamas politburo chief
Khaled Mishaal told Al Jazeera. "The equation has now become:
dismantling the checkpoints in exchange for giving up resistance. This
has become the Palestinian cause."
Mr. Mishaal said the Palestinians would "never agree to stop Qassam
rockets in exchange for easing barriers."
"Very Dangerous"
Dr. Mustafa Barghouti, the PA minister of information and formal
spokesman for the Hamas government, called the American initiative "very
dangerous."
"It does not meet the minimum hopes of the Palestinian people," he
said, noting that it "does not include one single word in reference to
lifting the economic siege on the Palestinian people."
Ever since Hamas’s election, the PA has faced an economic and
diplomatic freeze from the US and most of Europe. To have aid restored,
Hamas leaders will have to recognize Israel’s right to exist, renounce
terrorism, and accept all past signed agreements with Israel.
Thus far, Hamas, which is sworn to Israel’s destruction, has
adamantly refused to comply with any of those requirements, and the
freeze, which the Palestinians refer to as "the siege," has continued.
"Pointless Initiative"
"The US administration asks the Palestinian people to stop resisting
the occupation, in exchange for the removal of military checkpoints,
which are scattered here and there, and Israel already started gesturing
that they will refuse this initiative, in order to create an atmosphere
of negotiations over an originally pointless initiative," said Dr.
Barghouti.
He also objected to the US proposal’s reference only to Mr. Abbas’s
Presidential Guards, rather than the entire PA government, which, of
course, means Hamas. This, he said, was a US attempt "to set a crack
between the government and the presidency."
Dr. Barghouti said if the Hamas government falls, "there will be no
other government having the same Palestinian unanimity." He vowed that
Hamas would not seek early elections because that would "neglect the
challenge to break the siege imposed on the Palestinian people."
No Conditionality
Israeli officials said most troubling from their perspective was
Washington’s decision to set specific dates for when Israel would begin
allowing Palestinians to travel from Gaza to Judea and Samaria.
"There is no conditionality. Even if the Palestinians don’t complete
their obligations, the US will expect us to complete ours," a senior
Israeli official explained.
Israelis fear that Hamas will use the proposed convoys to extend the
terrorists’ power and weapons from Gaza into Judea and Samaria.
Since Israel withdrew unilaterally from Gaza in the summer of 2005,
Palestinian terrorists have smuggled into that area over 30 tons of
illegal, offensive weaponry. It is feared that convoys would permit
these weapons to reach terrorist groups in Judea and Samaria, where the
security situation has not deteriorated as badly as it has in Gaza.
Israeli officials also raised concerns that the Jewish state was
being asked to ease restrictions on Palestinian movements without any
assurances that Mr. Abbas has completed his own commitments to security.
Talk and Photo-Ops
"Under the plan, Israel agrees to allow the transfer of weapons to
the Palestinians and to unilaterally and unconditionally forfeit
Israel’s security. At the same time, all the Palestinians are required
to do is make declarations, hold meetings, publish documents, and have
photo-ops, including at least one showing they are ‘beginning to destroy
tunnel networks,’" said Dr. Aaron Lerner of the IMRA news agency.
He pointed out that the Palestinians already have produced some
photos of PA forces pouring cement into tunnels as well as deploying
forces, efforts that had no impact on either smuggling or Qassam rocket
fire.
Dr. Lerner maintained that, if the US were really serious, it could
have required a different set of benchmarks for the Palestinians, such
as the destruction of a specific list of "hard targets," including
training camps or specifically identified fortifications.
The US plan says nothing about requiring the Palestinians to close
down rocket factories or confiscate rockets, weapons, or explosives, or
hand over contraband for removal or destruction.
Nothing Real
Asked why he thought the American proposal has no real benchmarks for
the Palestinians, Dr. Lerner offered two possibilities: The Americans
don’t really think the Palestinians can meet any goals, or the Americans
"really don’t care."
"Which is worse? In either case, this means the US is proposing that
Israel unilaterally increase the exposure of its citizens to terror
attacks," he said.
It is suspected that even the minimal security demands on Mr. Abbas
could bring a backlash from Hamas and other terrorist groups, which have
already stated that they have no intention of complying with the US
plan.
"Some of these steps are difficult," said Mr. Abbas’s aid, Saeb
Erekat. "But it’s the right approach."
Not All Demands
On May 4, officials in Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s office said
Israel would not be able to agree to all the demands in the US document,
especially the issue of the convoys. Other requirements in the plan,
such as the lifting of restrictions on Palestinians’ movements, seem
more acceptable, the officials said.
"Some of the ideas in the timetable Israel is already implementing;
others are already well advanced; and there are some that Israel will
not be able to address at the present because of security concerns," an
official in Mr. Olmert’s office said.
The demand for a corridor between PA territories is not new. Such
convoys were approved in a deal brokered by Ms. Rice in November 2005
before the Hamas terror organization became the ruling faction of the PA
government.
Hamas in Gaza
Although Israel faced numerous attacks before Hamas’s election, the
number skyrocketed after the terror group took control of the PA in
January 2006. Since Hamas has been in power, Gaza has been the site of
kidnappings of an IDF soldier, foreign nationals, and Palestinians from
many different factions.
In fact, the situation in Gaza has so badly deteriorated that
thousands of PA residents are reportedly lining up for visas that will
enable them to live in other countries, far away from life under the PA
government.
Hundreds of Palestinians have been killed and wounded in the
internecine fighting between Hamas and Fatah as they battle for control
of the government, despite the unity coalition that was supposed to end
the bloodshed.
Journalists Targeted
Reflecting the general consensus that Gaza is simply not safe, many
foreign journalists no longer maintain permanent bureaus there, and the
Foreign Press Association recently warned its members to avoid on-site
coverage in Gaza if at all possible.
Since Hamas took power, a number of reporters have been kidnapped,
including journalists from the Associated Press, Fox News, the French
Agence France Presse, and others. Some were held for a few hours; others
much longer.
On March 12, Alan Johnston, a Scottish national who works as a
reporter for the British Broadcasting Corporation and had been in Gaza
for three years, was kidnapped and has not been heard from since. In
mid-April, a Gaza group, "The Battalions of Jihad and Tawheed in
Palestine," said to be allied with the Islamist terror organization Al
Qaeda, issued a flyer claiming it had executed Mr. Johnston and promised
to release a video showing his murder.
The announcement connected Mr. Johnston’s kidnapping with Israel’s
imprisonment of convicted Arab terrorists from Judea, Samaria, and Gaza.
Beyond the flyer, there has been no further confirmation of Mr.
Johnston’s death and no video has been released.
Unpopular Prime Minister
Perhaps one of the major obstacles to the US plan from the Israeli
side is the fact that it was Mr. Olmert who agreed to it, and no one
knows whether his government will last another week, to say nothing of
eight months.
At the end of April, the Winograd Commission, which was established
to investigate the government’s mishandling of the Second Lebanon War
last summer, issued its findings which severely castigated Mr. Olmert,
Defense Minister Amir Peretz, and former Chief of Staff Dan Halutz, who
had already resigned.
In the wake of the Winograd Commission’s findings, there have been
serious calls from inside the government and from the public, for Mr.
Olmert to resign and for new elections to be held.
Mr. Olmert’s support levels in the polls had been hovering at about
three percent before the Winograd Commission’s report. Afterwards, they
dropped to nearly zero.
Waiting for Bibi
The polls also predict that, if Mr. Olmert’s government falls and new
elections are called, the Likud party will receive between 30 and 35
Knesset seats, compared to its present representation of 12 MKs. The
polls have consistently shown that the head of Likud, Benjamin
Netanyahu, is favored to be the next prime minister and that he would
have little trouble forming a politically conservative coalition with
the National Union/National Religious Party, Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael
Beiteinu, and a hareidi religious party, such as Shas. The three parties
are expected to garner about 30 seats together, easily giving Mr.
Netanyahu the necessary 61 seats to form a government.
In addition, a recent poll gave Russian businessman Arkadi Gaydamak’s
prospective new party nine seats. Mr. Gaydamak has already forged a
political alliance with Mr. Netanyahu.
Asked about his plans, Mr. Netanyahu said he felt ready to reassume
the position of prime minister. He said he had learned his lessons from
his previous term at the head of the government, and he predicted Mr.
Olmert’s government would fall prematurely due to public pressure.
Mr. Netanyahu and the Likud are regarded as much more security-minded
than are Mr. Olmert and his government, meaning that a Netanyahu
government is more likely to object to any US benchmarks that involve
security risks.
Israel’s security establishment has already said the moves required
in the benchmark plan would dramatically endanger already vulnerable
Israeli civilians who face constant missile launchings from Gaza,
suicide bombings, and other terrorist attacks.
A Gift
According to IMRA’s Dr. Lerner, the new American proposal may be an
inadvertent gift to Mr. Olmert.
"At the very moment that many Israelis are focused on getting rid of
the rascals, Ms. Rice has provided a common enemy in the form of a
one-sided ludicrous proposal for Olmert and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni
to fight on behalf of the Jewish state," he said.
The PA’s problem is that while Mr. Abbas may agree to the US plan, he
has, in the past, proven powerless against Hamas, who has already stated
its objections to it.
Not Yet Accepted
The US blueprint was written by US security coordinator, Major-Gen
Keith Dayton; US Ambassador to Israel Dick Jones; and US Consul-General
in Jerusalem Jacob Walles.
Ms. Rice approved it before it was presented to Israel and the PA,
neither of whom has formally accepted it yet.
Palestinian sources told Ha’aretz that the PA’s Mr. Abbas has
accepted the document, but, the sources said, it is feared that Mr.
Olmert will "sabotage" it due to his precarious political situation.
Binding Document
If both sides accept the document, its rigid timetable will become a
binding agreement.
The bus convoy operating five days a week between the Erez checkpoint
at the entrance to Gaza and the Tarqumiya roadblock at the entrance to
Hebron is required to be established no later than July 1, 2007.
Even earlier—June 1, 2007—Israel is required to remove specific
roadblocks and other traffic and movement restrictions in Bethlehem,
Hebron, and Shechem (Nablus).
The document requires the PA to develop a plan against the Qassam
rockets no later than June 21, 2007, and Mr. Abbas must deploy his
forces against the terrorists by then. Palestinian forces are also
required to act to prevent arms smuggling in Gaza in coordination with
Israel.
The plan requires Israel and the PA to re-establish coordination and
liaison headquarters in Judea and Samaria.
Transferring Weapons
Some Israeli officials expressed dismay at the new plan’s requirement
for Israel to transfer or allow others to transfer weapons to the PA.
This, too, is not a new idea. In the past, Israel has been encouraged to
allow weapons to reach Palestinian leaders who allegedly were going to
make efforts to stop terrorism. It never worked, and the weapons that
went to the Palestinians usually were eventually used to kill Jews.
In May 2006, weapons given to the PA were used in terrorist attacks
that resulted in the death of one Israeli and the wounding of another.
Last December, when another series of weapons were transferred to PA
forces loyal to Mr. Abbas, a Palestinian-terrorist leader frankly told
the press, "We promise to show Israelis very soon that the weapons
brought for [Mr. Abbas’s] Presidential Guard and [PA] security forces
will be used against the occupation."
Yuval Steinitz, then chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and
Defense Committee, predicted that "a lot of IDF soldiers and Israeli
civilians will be killed with these weapons."
No Discussion of Benchmarks
According to Mr. Olmert’s foreign press adviser, Miri Eisen,
benchmarks were not discussed by Messrs. Olmert and Abbas at their
meeting in mid-April.
"They certainly discussed the problem that the Palestinians have not
addressed the security issue to Israel’s satisfaction at all," Ms. Eisen
told Dr. Lerner. She called the halting of Qassam rocket-fire into
Israel "a pretty obvious benchmark."
"This is something that comes up at every meeting. And the bottom
line is that Israel is not willing to expand—certainly not the
‘non-ceasefire,’" she said.
However, she said, there has been no discussion between the Israelis
and Palestinians on any concrete benchmarks that fall into a timeline
for achievement.
Endanger Israeli Lives
In the US, the Zionist Organization of America took immediate
exception to the "benchmark plan." ZOA president Morton Klein, who is
urging Israel to reject the plan, wrote to President George Bush, asking
him to revoke it.
Mr. Klein said the plan "entails major Israeli concessions to the
unreformed Hamas/PA terrorist regime and will thus endanger Israeli
lives."
Mr. Klein pointed out that the plan does not mention the need for the
PA to fulfill its commitments under the signed Oslo agreements and the
Road Map to jail terrorists, close Palestinian-terrorists’ weapons
factories, and end the incitement to hatred and murder which is
regularly heard in the PA-controlled media, mosques, schools, and youth
camps that feeds terrorism.
"None of these commitments have been fulfilled by the PA," said Mr.
Klein.
Rewarding Terror
He pointed out that, in return for many far-reaching concessions by
Israel, all the "benchmark plan" requires of the PA is that it deploy
security forces and merely "begin curbing rocket fire" into Israel by
Palestinian terrorist groups.
"The ‘benchmark plan’ is simply a dangerous mistake that rewards the
PA’s promotion of terror and refusal to comply with their signed
commitments. It not only fails to hold them accountable for their
horrific actions, but sends a message that we are not serious about
their compliance with past agreements," said Mr. Klein.
He maintained that because the plan "seeks to launch Israel along the
road to major concessions to the PA regardless of the on-going
non-fulfillment of PA commitments" to past agreements, the "benchmark
plan" is "divorced from reality" and "dangerous to the security and
welfare of Israel and its citizens as well as to America and its
citizens."
Under these circumstances, he said, the new plan "not only makes a
mockery of Israel and US, but sends the message to Al-Qaeda and others
murdering Americans in Iraq and elsewhere that terrorism pays."
No More Weapons
Mr. Klein also strongly condemned the "benchmark plan" requirement
that Israel supply weapons to the PA at the discretion of Maj-Gen
Dayton, calling it "an insult to Israeli sovereignty and a danger to
Israeli citizens."
"Israel has taken huge risks for peace in the past, handing over all
of Gaza and half of Judea and Samaria to the PA, as well as money,
assets, and even arms, all of which were simply used to murder and maim
more innocent Jewish men, women and children. The very existence of this
new timetable for further, dangerous Israeli concessions to the PA,
which has done nothing to jail and arrest terrorists or end incitement
to hatred and murder within the PA, shows that these realities are
simply being ignored by Secretary Rice and her advisers," said Mr.
Klein.
He called for the Israeli government to "decisively and utterly
reject this plan" and for President Bush to "disown it."
"The ‘benchmark plan’ is simply incompatible with the President’s
insistence that he is ‘the best friend Israel ever had,’" said Mr.
Klein.